anuary 2017, he pledged GDP growth at 4 percent. More recently, he projected
上海千花网女神会所US growth at 3 percent. Yet analysts estimate US growth this year at 2.5 percent or less. Quali
tative assessments suggest deterioration, as the growth of domestic demand is slumping.
Worse, US GDP growth forecasts for 2020 indicate softening to 1.8 per上海千花网
cent, possibly a (near-recession) slowdown－especially if trade and tech wars still
escalate. In the absence of negative surprises, China’s GDP growth is lik
上海千花网ely to stay within the target of 6.2 percent in 2019 and possibly in 2020 as well, with
supportive fiscal and monetary conditions. US tariff wars are likely to penalize the Chinese economy by less
上海千花网女神会所than 0.5 percent of GDP, which could be offset by just a modest depreciation of the renminbi.
If recent policy mistakes in the White House prevail, slower growth in i
nvestment spending, rising concern for continued trade wars and destabilizing geopolitics are likely to foster downside上海千花网
risks in global economic prospects, as risks for further downgrades morph into actual realities.
The author is the founder of Difference Group and has served at India, China and
上海千花网女神会所America Institute (US), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) a
nd the EU Centre (Singapore). The views of the article do not necessarily represent those of China Daily.
Key indexes decline as US threat to impose tariffs rattles global investors上海千花网
China’s A-share market, together with other Asian peers, tumbled on Friday, after the
unexpected tariff threat from the United States overnight rattled investors globally.
上海千花网女神会所The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.41 percent to close at 2867.84 poi
nts, while the smaller Shenzhen Component Index ended 1.42 percent lower at 9136.46 points.
More than 3,000 shares, or 85 percent of the shares listed on mainland bourses in total, registered losses on上海千花网
Friday, with brokerages, energy equipment manufacturers and the shipping sector leading the fall.
上海千花网女神会所Low investor sentiment was witnessed in other Asian bourses on Friday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Japan’s Nikkei a
nd South Korea’s Kospi losing 2.35 percent, 2.11 percent and 0.95 percent, respectively.